Senior Senator David Perdue and Junior Senator Kelly Loeffler will both be up for reelection in November (Image uploaded by: poopdogcomedy)
This cycle, Georgia has the distinction of being the only state with two simultaneous Senate elections. Our senior senator, David Perdue, was first elected in 2014 and is currently running his first re-election campaign. Our junior senator, Kelly Loeffler, was appointed early this year to succeed Johnny Isakson, and is running in this special election to serve the remainder of Isakson’s term, ending in 2023. Because one is a standard Senate election and the other is a special election, the two contests will be held under different rules.
I’ll address the Perdue seat first. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, and it seems unlikely that it will be pushed back due to coronavirus, because the state government is encouraging people to vote by mail. If no candidate gets a majority, there will be a runoff between the top two on July 21, with the winner facing Perdue in November. Because most of the media’s attention has been directed toward the special election, there has only been one poll conducted thus far, but I anticipate that there will be more as we approach the primary. The three major Democratic candidates are, in alphabetical order, Sarah Riggs Amico, Jon Ossoff, and Teresa Tomlinson.
Sarah Riggs Amico is a former business executive and a relative newcomer to politics. Her company, Jack Cooper Transport, went bankrupt last year, although apparently after Amico had left. She was the Democratic nominee for Lieutenant Governor in 2018, and in this election she is running off of her closeness to her former “running mate” Stacey Abrams, who remains immensely popular among Georgia Democrats. Her website is light on policy, but she describes herself as a progressive. Her campaign has not earned any major endorsements. Polling at 15% overall, her strongest demographics are voters aged 18 to 29, at 31%, and those making between $25,000 and $50,000, at 23%. Her strength with younger voters is probably because of her connection to the Abrams campaign, which focused a lot on energizing the youth vote.
Next, Jon Ossoff is a self-described “investigative journalist” who has produced documentaries exposing corruption. On this note, his campaign’s core message has been cleaning up corruption in Washington. He has also served as a national security staffer to Congressman Hank Johnson. Ossoff came to national prominence after nearly winning the special election for Georgia’s 6th congressional district back in 2017. His website is also quite thin on policy, but in 2017 he ran as a moderate. He has been endorsed by Congressmen Hank Johnson and John Lewis, as well as a number of state legislators. Interestingly, state politicians seem to think he is the most electable against Perdue. Polling at 31% overall, his strongest demographics are those making over $150,000, at 49%, and white voters, at 42%. Both of these can be explained by his name recognition and support in the affluent northern suburbs of Atlanta, where he ran in 2017.
Finally, Teresa Tomlinson has the most political experience of the three, having served as mayor of Columbus from 2011 to 2019. Her website (thankfully) has a very extensive policy section. Based on this, she appears to be a relatively mainstream Democrat. She supports strengthening the Affordable Care Act, as opposed to Medicare For All, but she also has more liberal views on guns and criminal justice reform. She has been endorsed by several state legislators, as well as by a number of prominent state and national Democrats, including Max Cleland, Roy Barnes, Jason Carter, and… Marianne Williamson? Huh. Polling at 16% overall, her strongest demographics are those making between $25,000 and $50,000, at 26%, and voters aged 30 to 44, at 25%. Tomlinson’s support seems to be more evenly spread across different groups than Ossoff’s or Amico’s.
Unlike the regular election, the special election for the Loeffler seat will be conducted as a jungle primary in November, with all of the Democratic and Republican candidates running against each other on the same ballot. If, as seems likely, no candidate gets a majority, a runoff will be held on January 5, 2021. Most of the media attention in this race has gone toward the fact that Loeffler is being challenged by a fellow Republican, Congressman Doug Collins. Given Loeffler’s insider trading scandal, Collins seems like a shoe-in to qualify for the runoff, so the bigger question is whether Loeffler can come second in November, or whether a Democrat will.
There has been more polling for the special election than for the other primary, because general election presidential polls can easily include questions about the November jungle primary. Note: for these candidates, when I look at their demographic strengths, I will ignore race, because by the very nature of Georgia politics, Democrats will always perform highly among black voters and poorly among white voters. Keep in mind that in a runoff election, all of these candidates would be very strong with black voters. With that said, the three major Democratic candidates are, in alphabetical order, Matt Lieberman, Ed Tarver, and Raphael Warnock.
Matt Lieberman is a businessman and the son of former Senator Joe Lieberman of Connecticut. Although he has no prior political experience of his own, he benefits from his father’s high name recognition. Unlike his father, he appears to be relatively a liberal Democrat. His website outlines his support for a public option and strict gun control measures. His campaign currently has no significant endorsements. Polling at 11% among all voters and 23% among Democrats, his strongest demographics are independents, at 19%, and voters aged 18 to 29, at 16%. His strength among independents can be explained by his father’s record as a maverick conservative Democrat, but I’m not sure what is behind his numbers with younger voters.
Next, Ed Tarver is a former state senator and served as United States Attorney for the Southern District of Georgia from 2009 to 2017, making him the most experienced Democrat in this race. His website is quite thin on policy, instead highlighting his ties to the Obama administration, and his role as the first African American district attorney in that jurisdiction. Despite his experience and connections, he has no significant endorsements. Polling at 4% among all voters and 6% among Democrats, his strongest demographics are those making less than $25,000, at 17%, and independents, at 9%. I have no idea why he performs so well with low-income voters, or why he polls higher among independents than among Democrats.
Finally, Raphael Warnock is the senior pastor at Ebenezer Baptist Church, where Martin Luther King Jr. preached. He does not have any political experience, although party leaders tried to recruit him to run for this seat in 2016, when it was held by Johnny Isakson. His website is also light on policy, mainly focusing on his connection to religion and the church. Although Warnock may have some general election liabilities (namely, his defense of Jeremiah Wright and the fact that he allegedly ran over his wife’s foot during a marital dispute), state and national party leaders have rallied around him. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, several senators, and most importantly, Stacey Abrams, have all endorsed his candidacy. It seems clear that the Georgia Democratic establishment (inasmuch as such a thing exists) wants him to be the candidate in a runoff. Polling at 6% among all voters and 15% among Democrats, his strongest demographics are voters with a graduate degree, at 14%, and those making over $150,000, at 10%.
As for myself, I am totally undecided in both races. I think all six candidates I’ve discussed above have strengths and weaknesses. For the Perdue seat, Amico has generated some excitement among younger voters, Ossoff has demonstrated appeal with wealthy suburban whites who have traditionally voted Republican, and Tomlinson has the most experience as an elected official. For the Loeffler seat, Lieberman seems strong with independents and moderates, Tarver has experience as a member of a legislative body, and Warnock has the backing of the state and national party. Given that the latter race will be held as a jungle primary, it is essential that liberals in Georgia rally around whichever Democrat is leading come November, so that we can avoid a runoff between Loeffler and Collins.
